Diane Joy Galos

Brace yourselves—an "ice-free" Arctic Ocean could become a reality as early as 2027.

A new study published in Nature Communications warns that the Arctic’s first ice-free day is coming sooner than we think, possibly within two decades, even under the best-case scenarios.

Photo Courtesy of Dreamstime.

"The first ice-free day in the Arctic won't change things dramatically," said Alexandra Jahn, a climatologist at the University of Colorado Boulder.

 "But it will show that we've fundamentally altered one of the defining characteristics of the natural environment in the Arctic Ocean."

Ice-free means less than one million square kilometers of ice remains. 

Jahn noted that areas like northern Nunavut and Greenland, known for their remaining sea ice, could be at risk if global temperatures rise above 2°C. This includes the Tuvaijuittuq Marine Protected Area, where the government extended tourism restrictions for five more years.

The study's projections were based on conditions in September 2023, when there were about 3.39 million square kilometers of sea ice. Jahn explained that open water absorbs more solar radiation, accelerating the melting process.

Arctic sea ice, which has been shrinking by more than 12% per decade since 1979, helps regulate global temperatures and supports marine life.

As the ice melts, darker ocean water absorbs more sunlight, speeding up the warming process through the albedo effect—turning the Arctic into a hot spot of warming four times faster than the global average.

The study, using 11 climate models and 366 simulations, predicts that the ice-free day could happen in as little as three to six years if conditions warm unusually fast, with most models showing it could occur by the 2030s.

Professor Bruno Tremblay from McGill University's department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences. He wasn't involved in the study, but is also conducting similar research, he pointed out the unpredictability of emissions and storms' effects on ice.

"The variability is huge and large losses can occur in a very short amount of time," Tremblay said.

Jahn believes ice-free conditions can still be avoided if global warming stays below 1.5°C.

However, the United Nations’ report shows many countries are struggling to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target by 2030.

"We want to be prepared," said lead author Celine Heuze, a climatology researcher at the University of Gothenburg. "It's also important to know what events could lead to the melting of all sea ice in the Arctic Ocean."

While the findings are alarming, researchers point out that reducing carbon emissions could delay this event and help preserve the sea ice.

Jahn remains hopeful, saying reducing emissions will help slow the spread of ice-free periods, even if the target is missed.

"Even if we see an ice-free day once or twice a year, reducing emissions can prevent it from lasting longer," she said.

The Arctic is changing fast, but it’s not too late to slow the ice melt – the clock is ticking.