Power Struggle for Hezbollah: Leader Assassinated

Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed with at least six civilians and injured 91 of them on September 27, 2024 following the extensive airstrikes launched by Israel that targeted the militant group that started on the 23rd of September 2024. Since then, the Israeli intensified airstrikes that bombarded the southern part of Beirut which killed and wounded leaders of Hezbollah as well as women, children and medics according to Lebanon’s health ministry.

Hezbollah, which has long been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and several other countries, has been a key player in Middle Eastern geopolitics. This meant profound weakening for Hezbollah which was sought to be the most capable non-state actor in the Middle East mostly known for its top tier leadership in the Middle Eastern geopolitics for more than 30 years since its establishment. Hezbollah’s power dynamics paved the way for their leverage as a symbol of resistance against Israel which has helped them attain among various factions in the Arab world and gain political leverage and a deep social and political integration into Lebanese society. 

The airstrikes in Lebanon killed seven other high-ranking commanders and officials the past few weeks such as the deputy head of Hezbollah, Nabil Kaouk, its top commander who led Hezbollah’s elite Radwan forces, Ibrahim Akil, and including the group's leader, Hassan Nasrallah. The death of Nasrallah, among other factors, plays a major role in destabilizing Hezbollah and the region, potentially influencing the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict. As the leadership ranks are increasingly depleted, less experienced individuals may be thrust into the key positions of the militant group.

Hezbollah is a Lebanese militant group that operates as a political party and is heavily funded and influenced by Iran. Known as the "Party of God," rooted in the teachings and principles of Iran’s Islamic Revolution of ‘Wilayat al-Faqih’ (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist), under the propagation of the late Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khomeini. Hezbollah identifies itself primarily as a Shia Islamist movement which undermines Islamic governance based on Shia beliefs, a separate branch of Islam. Hezbollah is also often dubbed to public as "a state within a state" which is due to its operation as a government over the areas that are under its control, majority of which are Lebanon’s Shiite-majority areas, including parts of Beirut, southern Lebanon, and the eastern Bekaa Valley region.

According to late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a 2016 statement: “All of Hezbollah’s budget, expenses, wages, food, drinks, weapons and rockets are all supplied by the Islamic Republic of Iran.” This funding underscores Hezbollah's integration into Iran's regional military structure, where members may hold Lebanese IDs but serve the interests of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Quds Force.

Seeing an opportunity to expand its influence in Arab states, Iran and its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) provided funds and training to the movement. This expansion is a strategy brought by IRGC to counter its long term rival, the Gulf countries and the broader Arab league who also designated Hezbollah as a “terrorist organization in 2016. 

Hezbollah present-day has claimed it has 100,000 of well-trained and battle-hardened fighters. In addition, Hezbollah has an estimated 120,000-200,000 rockets and missiles, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. This military support initiated by IRGC serves as an obstruction against Israel military operations which are missiles capable enough of striking Israel regions.

The Shia Muslims in Lebanon serve as a significant factor that emerged as a response to the needs of Lebanese Shia Muslims, who faced decades of marginalization by the Lebanese state. The Shia community make up 30% of the Lebanon’s population in which historically originated in the regions of Jabal Amel and Bekaa Valley who are considered to be marginalized sectors of Lebanon facing socio-economic disparities prior to Hezbollah’s rise. 

The Shia movement in Lebanon being diverse in communities took advantage of this factor which gave them a platform to advocate for the interests of the Shia Muslims and influence the government policies of the country. Two other major communities in the state are the Sunni Muslims who are traditionally congruent to the political factions backed by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries as well as the Christians community in Lebanon who spread slowly in Lebanon due to pagans and the population hiked to be around 37% to 43% and the highest in the proportion of Christians in the Middle East region.

Another factor to consider was Iran and the 1979 Revolution wherein Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution provided a model and support for Hezbollah's formation, offering ideological and financial backing. Hezbollah supported the Shia community through extensive social services and in meeting their needs. This Iranian Revolution of 1979 led to the removal of Shah (Mohammad Reza Pahlavi) due to his Autocratic Rule and and unimpressive leadership which lead to mass protests of his removal which then led to his flee in Iran in January 1979 and later on replaced Iran’s government as an Islamic Republic under the rule of Ayatollah Khomeini.

  

The Israeli invasion of Lebanon also played a major role in Hezbollah's rise, particularly its operations against Palestinian groups in southern Lebanon, catalyzing the rise of Hezbollah as a resistance force. Israeli troops then invaded Beirut to try to eliminate the threat from Hezbollah but Hezbollah claimed victory and has increased in number of fighters and weapons since then. This threat is rooted from the activities of these Palestinian militant groups such as the Palestine Liberation Organization who moved its headquarters in South Lebanon from 1968 onwards as an initiative by Palestinian militants against Israel. Hezbollah then emerged as a resistance force, backed by Iran and Syria, in oppose of the Israeli forces.

Hezbollah stated its aim to "obliterate Israel from existence" in 1985, with a focus on resisting Israeli military presence. The group’s initial focus was to expel U.S. and its French peacekeeping troops from Lebanon, reflecting its aim as a militant force committed to resist against Israeli military forces.

Hezbollah’s focus on resisting Israel's occupation in Southern Lebanon was clear, but the group also aimed to establish an Islamic order apart from this main focus and vision. This meant Hezbollah’s aim and vision to promote a society governed by Shia Islamic values and the elimination of foreign influence in the region.

This promotion of Shia Islamic is another tenet of Hezbollah's ideology. In addition to opposing Israel and their Shia Islamic belief, the group also aimed to mobilize the Muslim world, with Lebanon being crucial in furthering the objectives of Iran's Islamic Revolution of 1979.

However, by the early 1990s, Hezbollah started to engage in political engagements that led to the establishment of a political party. This establishment gained representation in the Lebanese parliament by 1992. Since then, Hezbollah has secured cabinet positions and has emerged as a significant voice for Lebanon's Shia Community.

Hezbollah is described as a "state within a state" due to its military capabilities and extensive social services provided in regions it controls. This duality presents challenges, as Hezbollah continues to yield significant military power and social services to where Lebanon failed to sustain contributing to Lebanon’s socio-economic status, this duality are seen as destabilizing factors for Lebanon. This assistance is double-aged as this further strengthened Lebanon’s reliance on Iranian backing. 

According to Tom Keatinge of Royal United States Institute, Lebanon's economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of repeated challenges that many thought would prove too much, but there is reason to fear that the impact of a Hezbollah-triggered war with Israel could be the final straw. As the country relied on Hezbollah’s backing, this close ties with Iran involved military conflicts in the country such as the Syrian Civil War back in 2013 and the turmoil between Israel and Iran from its establishment until present day that were factors of devastation on Lebanon’s fragile economy. Lebanon now faces profound challenges apart from their socio-economic situation, including a broken sectarian political system that has facilitated widespread corruption and a dire economic situation, with approximately 80% of the population living in poverty.

The ongoing conflict in Gaza has reignited tensions between Hezbollah and Israel. This internal instability comes at a critical time, as Hezbollah has amassed a significant arsenal of rockets and weaponry including the killing of their leader Hassan Nasrallah, but has not yet retaliated in a large-scale attack.

According to political analyst Nicholas Blanford in an interview, Iranians do not want Hezbollah to get involved in full scale war with Israel for the sake of Hamas. Hezbollah is a political asset for Iran in its broader regional dynamics and waging a full scale war could lead to destabilization for Hezbollah and Lebanon. Nicholas further suggests that Hezbollah may be hesitant to escalate the conflict, mindful of the potential consequences. This could lead to potential consequences such as the worsening of the socio-economic status of Lebanon and escalation of the humanitarian crisis if a full-scale military conflict were to occur.

Israel, for its part, has ramped up its military preparedness, deploying additional forces near the Lebanese border, though officials have indicated a preference to avoid a ground invasion if possible. While Hezbollah has not yet responded directly to Nasrallah's death, the leadership vacuum and potential for retaliation have raised concerns about further destabilization in Lebanon and the broader Middle East. 

Lebanon's most powerful military and political force now finds itself trying to recuperate from severe blows, having lost significant members who have been part of Hezbollah since its establishment. The movement's weakened position could embolden Hezbollah’s political opponents in Lebanon, as well as other regional actors, to challenge its influence, potentially altering the dynamics of conflicts across the region, including in Gaza. 

This change may also result in more division inside Lebanon as other groups could potentially take advantage of Hezbollah's weaknesses in order to establish their own dominance. With the ongoing escalation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, Lebanon and Palestine continue to suffer an increasing fragile economy and humanitarian crisis today.

The worsening circumstances may lead to shifting allegiances and rivalries, which would radically alter Middle Eastern geopolitics and alter Lebanese politics. Beyond the current crisis, these adjustments may have an impact on regional stability and the future of different political groupings in Lebanon.

In the context of the Israel-Gaza conflict, Hezbollah’s reduced capacity due to the loss of its high-ranking officials which could impact the group’s ability to coordinate or provide support to Palestinian fractions. As Iran remains heavily involved, the group's actions in the coming weeks will likely be influenced by Iran’s strategic goals to maintain its influence over Hezbollah which may include keeping pressure on Israel while avoiding further destabilization of its key allies. 

Hezbollah's activities in the upcoming weeks will likely align with Tehran's strategic objectives to preserve its influence over the group. In order to ensure Hezbollah's future significance in the region that could threaten wider Iranian interests, Iran may push the group to apply pressure on Israel while also advising caution to prevent undermining its major allies that could result to a full-scale conflict.

Hezbollah may also be forced by the changing circumstances to take extra precautions in order to prevent needless escalation, particularly in light of Lebanon's precarious political and economic status. To ensure the movement’s stability, Hezbollah may concentrate on safeguarding its assets and keeping its base of support at home while safeguarding as well its connections with Palestine and Iran.

Hezbollah’s leadership is significant to maintain a strong military posture against Israel and in achieving Tehran’s strategic goals to value its ties with Iran who provides the group with financial and military support. The situation remains fluid, and Hezbollah's next steps will continue to play a crucial role in determining whether the conflict between Israel and Gaza escalates further or sees a period of relative calm.