Leptospirosis cases drop, data scientist flags hidden deaths

Leptospirosis cases in the country have dropped significantly, with the Department of Health (DOH) reporting only 10 cases per day in the past week compared to almost 200 daily earlier this month of August.

The National Kidney and Transplant Institute (NKTI) likewise reported on August 20 that no new admissions this week, marking a continued decline from the outbreak’s peak.

DOH Secretary Teodoro Herbosa, who visited NKTI patients, reminded the public not to be complacent. 

“Prevention and early consultation remain key to avoiding severe cases of leptospirosis and other rainy-season illnesses,” he said.

Data analysts caution that while the trend is improving, some areas might not be accurately representing the extent of infections.  

In recent years, the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) and Soccsksargen (Region 12) regions have seen more deaths than actual cases, according to Dr. Rogelio Alicor Panao,  a data scientist and an associate professor from the University of the Philippines.

“Soccsksargen in 2020 reported just one case, but it had four deaths. Caraga in the same year had eight cases and 14 deaths. BARMM, with only one case each in 2020 and 2021, reported two deaths in both years,” Panao said.

He clarified that these inconsistencies raise the possibility of underreporting, in which only the most severe illnesses and deaths are documented.  

Metro Manila, on the other hand, records thousands of cases but has lower death rates, suggesting improved surveillance and more robust health systems.

Meanwhile, DOH Spokesperson Albert Domingo said on August 11, that the current decline matches the natural course of the disease. 

“Ang magandang balita is nag-report na rin ang ating infectious disease expert sa San Lazaro hospital na bumaba na po ang kanilang number of cases per day, nag-paplateau, ibig sabihin hindi na siya tumataas, nagpa-flat na siya or pwedeng bumababa na rin,” he said.

Domingo explained that cases usually spike one to two weeks after flooding, but hospitals remain on alert, some opening fast lanes to manage suspected cases quickly.

Leptospirosis, a bacterial infection spread through water contaminated by rat urine, can cause fever, muscle pain, and severe organ damage if untreated. 

Officials warn that while cases are dropping, hidden infections in under-resourced regions may still be a concern.