Fuel consumers to brace anew as projections signal price spike up to P1.50

John Paul Siapel

With an expected fuel price increase of up to ₱1.50 per liter based on local oil company calculations, Filipino consumers have to brace yet again for higher daily living costs ahead of the final market adjustments settling on June 29.

Monitors from the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) are currently tracking local gas stations to shield consumers from illegal overcharging before the new rates take effect on Tuesday.

Burden on PUV operators 

For Public Utility Vehicle operators, the threat of an immediate retail price hike undercuts recent relief from global market rollbacks.

The looming adjustment directly affects the livelihoods of transport workers, who must allocate a significant portion of their daily passenger revenue to fuel expenses.

“Kulang na nga ang kinikita namin para sa boundary at pagkain, mababawasan pa ulit dahil sa dagdag-presyo sa gas,” said Marlon Mayor, a 49-year-old jeepney driver.

Mayor stated that his daily take-home earnings decrease with every oil market spike, which limits his family’s capacity to purchase basic household supplies.

Impact of Middle East disputes

Global crude prices declined recently due to diplomatic talks and an improved oil supply outlook from Middle Eastern producers.

“World crude oil prices have eased down, despite the tempered optimism over the US-Iran interim peace deal and ongoing negotiations, on improving broader supply outlook as physical flows through the Strait of Hormuz gradually recovers, and the return of disrupted Middle Eastern barrels as Gulf producers ramp up production,” Jetti Petroleum Inc. President Leo Bellas said.

Bellas noted that a new sanctions waiver allows Iran to bring additional oil and petroleum products into the global market.

“Uncertainty still remains over the durability of the US-Iran accord,” he added, pointing to a recent cargo vessel incident in the Strait of Hormuz that renewed market concerns.

This persistent volatility leaves global oil trading markets highly unpredictable for local purchasing firms and international buyers.

Supply and demand trends

The divergence between diesel reductions and gasoline increases stems from varying product supply levels across the Asian market.

“Asian diesel and middle distillates price benchmarks are relatively weaker as the market is expecting a gradual rise in regional availability,” Bellas stated.

Regional refineries are maximizing distillate production runs to build inventory buffers, contributing to lower wholesale diesel prices.

“Fundamentals in the global gasoline market is expected to remain tight due to high seasonal demand despite the prospect of recovering crude and product flows,” Bellas explained.

While steady fuel demand from Indonesia supports Asian gasoline prices, strict export restrictions from China continue to limit available regional supply.

Actions and local realities

Local energy officials use a regulated pricing system to ensure domestic gas stations apply weekly price changes transparently.

“The adjustments today reflect last week’s market,” Department of Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said during a media briefing.

Garin clarified that local retail rate adjustments directly follow international trading benchmarks rather than domestic speculation or market manipulation.

“We monitor the retail market strictly to protect our consumers from unfair pricing,” Garin added regarding government enforcement mandates.

The agency assured the public that national inventories remain stable, with supplies sufficient for 40 days of normal economic use.

Pump prices and current supply

Drivers are currently benefiting from lower baseline rates following a substantial price rollback enforced by local oil companies earlier this week.

Average pump prices in Metro Manila stand at ₱62.55 per liter for gasoline and ₱56.74 per liter for diesel.

The recent adjustments reduced gasoline by up to ₱5.90 per liter and cut diesel by up to ₱11.04 per liter.

“The prices in our country [are] reflective of the international market prices,” Garin stated. 

Independent energy experts further confirmed that local inventories remain stable and sufficient to meet transport and industrial demands despite overseas shipping delays.