Reemerging cracks: Yesterday’s quakes, tomorrow’s fate

A moment of stillness is shattered by the sudden trembling of the ground, and for a few seconds, life in the Philippines holds its breath.

Being situated in the Pacific Ring of Fire, the country’s history is littered with numerous earthquakes that have devastated landscapes and wounded families. Frequent earthquakes in the country are a constant concern for the people, along with other natural hazards like typhoons.

 On October 10, 2025,  at 9:43 in the morning, what seemed to be an ordinary morning was thrown into chaos as parts of Mindanao and Eastern Visayas shook following a magnitude 7.4 earthquake that occurred in Manay, Davao Oriental near the Philippine Trench. This was later preceded by another earthquake in the evening at 7:12 PM measuring at magnitude 6.8, around the same location.

According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (NDRRMC), the tragedy has resulted in eight deaths and 395 injured individuals. Moreover, 125,283 families or 491,258 individuals were affected across seven provinces; 2,155 houses, 273 infrastructures, 32 road sections, and seven bridges also sustained damage due to the earthquake.

This rare twin earthquake happened shortly after the destructive magnitude 6.9 earthquake in Bogo, Cebu last September 30, 2025, claiming several lives and turning towns into rubble. Although the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) has confirmed that these earthquakes are not related to each other, these incidents along with past tremors could all hold key information that may help us understand underlying tectonic processes and anticipate future seismic events.

Revisiting the ruins

Historically, six years ago in October 2019,  Mindanao also experienced fierce shaking lasting  for two weeks after a series of earthquakes felt in Cotabato. Few of the most prominent ones of these quakes were on October 16 (magnitude 6.4), October 29 (magnitude 6.6), and October 31 (magnitude 6.5).

Meanwhile, two years ago on December 2, 2023, a magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck in Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur. Like the recent tremors in Manay, this earthquake occurred along the Philippine Trench, which according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), is where the Philippine Sea Plate slides underneath the Philippine Mobile Belt which causes the frequent earthquakes in the area.

A ‘Quake’ explanation

And so what? What is the significance of these earthquakes in the grander scheme of things?

These tremors, although separate events, are caused by the same tectonic activities happening in the country.. All these earthquakes took place within the Philippine Mobile Belt, a zone sandwiched between the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate and is where a majority of the country’s territory resides. This explains the commonness of earthquakes in the archipelago as two plates constantly collide with one another.

Both the Manay and Hinatuan earthquakes occurred near the Philippine Trench due to the movement of Philippine Sea Plate and the Philippine Mobile Belt, causing tsunami waves to ripple across large distances. On the other hand, the earthquake in Cotabato was produced by the shifting of shallow crustal faults inland, but still within the area of the Philippine Mobile Belt.

Altogether, these earthquakes highlight the Philippines’ deep entanglement with seismic forces — a reality that turns science into survival  for millions of Filipinos. 

As a consequence of this rich seismic occurrence in the nation, the Philippines is certain to expect more earthquakes in the future, possibly even more catastrophic than the ones mentioned earlier.

Shaking soon

And if the worst were to happen, then what would become of the country?

Discussions of the so-called “The Big One” make its way into conversations from time to time. It is a hypothesized major earthquake that is expected to  affect  Metro Manila, the country’s largest metropolitan area, estimated to be around magnitude 7.2 in strength and is predicted to destroy  tall urban buildings and achieve a death toll of around 50 thousand individuals. It is noted to occur  in the West Valley Fault, a major active fault line that runs through Metro Manila, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, and Laguna.

Moreover, with the latest earthquakes, PHIVOLCS noted a possibility of a magnitude 8.2 earthquake that is capable of occurring in the Philippine Trench, the same area where the Manay and Hinatuan earthquakes happened.

What adds worries with these possible tragedies is their unpredictability – while these events could happen, the exact time of their occurrence remains uncertain. These potential dangers, though threatening, may also serve as a reminder of the Philippines’ vulnerability and urge immediate action.

Calm before the quake

Knowledge of impending doom may bring distress, but with it also comes awareness and the chance to mitigate its impacts.

Earthquakes are no longer a novel experience in the Philippines, thus, outdated mitigation and response efforts are regularly revamped. On April 24, 2025, RA 12180 or the PHIVOLCS Modernization Law was passed in hopes of enhancing the country’s earthquake monitoring and disaster response systems through acquisition of new instruments, enhanced data centers, upgraded laboratories, and many more initiatives.

However, even with the latest efforts, there are still certain parts that are lagging behind. For example, substandard structures and buildings that do not comply with building codes still run rampant in the country according to Rhommel Grutas, a supervising science research specialist in PHIVOLCS, as people try to cut corners due to cost. 

Furthermore, the Department of Public Works and Highways’ (DPWH) latest structural assessment of over 21,000 public buildings this year found that hundreds of public facilities like schools and hospitals are in need of retrofitting. However, this process proves to be difficult and expensive, especially in urban areas, further limiting resilience against earthquakes.

For a country that lies in an area susceptible to earthquakes while lacking in preparedness, the Philippines and its citizens might remain vulnerable to the wrath of the Earth. As such, efforts to strengthen the nation’s resilience against tremors are a necessity and a priority.

The quakes of yesterday may have left a serious mark, but they could also serve as a lesson of preparedness and responsibility. While earthquakes are a natural phenomenon beyond our control, how we prepare, respond, and recover is entirely in our hands, and with it lies the fate of our nation.